It seems these days that tech is out of favor. No one is interested in what most technology companies are doing at the moment. This won’t last long. After some time passes, and people will be looking for the latest and greatest companies.
With the imminent demise of Yahoo!, people will be looking for where to put their money. Many have already put their money behind Google. This would be a mistake. Google does one thing very well: Search. Beyond that, Google’s successes are suspect. Everyone is far to willing to crown them as the new kings of technology.
My pick to carry the crown? Apple. My reasons are likely not the ones you might think. It has nothing to do with iTunes, the Apple line, the iPod’s, or the iPhones. Those are merely incidental reasons I think Apple has the potential for taking the leadership in technology. The real reason that Apple will become the dominant technology is the App. Store.
For the past decade, the story of the little guy producing Doom in his basement and getting riches seemed impossible. Games budgets were in the tens of millions and small applications were essentially written for free. The brilliant hobbyist programmer had no real mechanism for turning their talents into real money. The Application Store has changed all of that. The iPhone gives programmers a simple device with which to produce small programs that cost $5. There is not only no need for millions of features, but it’s undesirable.
Applications cost anywhere between Free-$29.99, but the vast majority cost about $5. It’s cheap enough that people aren’t afraid of the cost or the effort to learn the software. Most developers think that cost is the main obstacle to purchases of software. It isn’t. The main obstacle is the time it takes to learn a product and hoping it will meet your needs. The idea of buying software to learn just doesn’t appeal to most people.
Most iPhone users have the expectation that the software be VERY easy to use. Factor in the cost of only $5 and you have a recipe for success. The simple standardized platform with an expectation of simplicity means no extra features. Programmers do one simple thing and do it well. This means the dream of anyone producing a blockbuster title is now alive again. Nothing makes your product more vital than a community of hobbyist developers doing far more with your product than you imagined. The valued added from this community is immeasurable.
Now is the time of the iPhone app millionaire. The gold rush for programmers is on. That is the vitality and interest in a platform that Google and Microsoft don’t have.

2 Comments
The vast majority cost $0.99 or free.
And it’s wrong to think Google does “one thing very well: search”. They also have great mail, maps, local search, advertising, and now a promising browser, phone, and operating system too.
Apple will die like the dinosaurs since they have no concept in how to use open architecture like Google does. Google will be the king and knock apple to the side of the road and keep apple as a side show attraction where they out to be. Long Live open source and the Google nexus one.
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